The Basics Of The NFL Point Spread

In order to successfully bet on NFL football its important to start with the fundamentals. And were not talking about the Xs and Os of professional football game planning”were talking about the fundamentals of understanding the wagering side of the equation. There’s a lot of misunderstanding about what NFL pointspreads mean and how they are set. A firm grasp of the essential bookmaking concept of setting NFL lines is a prerequisite for any hopes of sports betting success.

The general public has a tendency to oversimplify the meaning of an NFL pointspread. The conventional wisdom is that it is simply a prediction of which team will win and by how much. There is a component of that in the NFL bookmaking equation, but theres a lot more to it. In theory, a sportsbooks primary goal is to equally divide the action they take on an individual game. If they do their job right, the outcome of the game is irrelevant to the bookmaker. Youll frequently hear clueless sportscasters make inane comments following a big upset like Boy, the sportsbooks in Las Vegas must have lost their shirts on that one or whoever set the line got this one wrong. Thats something that simply cannot be determined from the outcome of the game alone.

A bookmakers primary goal in setting NFL betting lines is to equally divide action. To do this they have to make each side of a wagering proposition attractive to a prospective player. For that reason, its more accurate to say that NFL lines are more of a reflection of the betting public’s perception of which team will win a game and by how much than anything else. A bookmaker may shade the NFL lines involving teams that are popular with the general public such as the Dallas Cowboys or New England Patriots to make their opponent a more enticing betting option. So if the numbers in a hypothetical game between Dallas and Cincinnati indicate that the Cowboys should be a -6 favorite a book may open the game at -7 or -7. For that reason going against public teams is almost always a strong wagering strategy.

In early season wagering there are a few additional factors at play. A bookmaker may consider a teams NFL preseason record for the simple reason that the NFL betting public gives it undue attention. Sharp players know that there is little correlation between a teams preseason success (or lack thereof) and their regular season performance. Another consideration is a teams performance in the previous season or, in some cases, their historical performance. A team with a winning tradition like New England or Carolina may be priced higher than the true odds indicate as a result.

Furthermore, its important to understand why NFL lines are moved after the opening numbers are posted. While it may occasionally be due to external factors such as injury or weather, more often than not its a direct result of the money a book is drawing on one side of the proposition or another. The idea is that by moving the line it makes wagers on the side a book wishes to attract money on more attractive.

NFL football betting is a very complex discipline, and many neophytes make the mistake of focusing exclusively on the nuances of the game itself. To successfully bet on NFL football, however, it is important to spend as much time understanding the intricacies of the sports gambling marketplace.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and World Cup betting sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.

Minnesota RB Peterson Should Play Despite Back Injury

Brett Favre may get all of the headlines for the Minnesota Vikings, but NFL insiders are well aware that running back Adrian Peterson is the key to the teams offensive success. Peterson’s threat alone is enough to open up options for the passing game. He’s definitely more than a decoy, however–after winning the NFL rushing title last year hes already off to a great start with 272 yards and four touchdowns in only two games.

There’s been a good deal of concern this week in the Twin Cities media about Peterson’s health. Specifically, there are questions about the severity of a back injury suffered last weekend. Peterson has been limited in his practice activities all week as a precaution, though both he and QB Favre as listed as probable on the NFLs official injury report.

The NFLs leading rusher tried to downplay the significance of his injury in comments to reporters:

“God willing, I will be out there playing. Not a big deal at all.”

He turned into a standup comic when asked for details on the injury. Asked when the injury occurred, Peterson quipped:

“It happened, like, a week back. But that’s all behind me now.”

Vikings offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell didnt sound too concerned, but he wasnt cracking jokes either:

“I’m comfortable with where he’s at. I know he’s been working hard to rehab. … Right now, I think he’s going to be OK, but we have to continue to go throughout the week with that.”

Peterson ran for 92 yards and a touchdown against the Detroit Lions last weekend. His presence alone makes things much easier for the Vikings passing attack”opposing teams often put 8 or 9 men along the line of scrimmage to try and stop him, giving QB Brett Favre a great opportunity to get the ball downfield to his receivers in single coverage.

The Vikings host a team known for their own potent running game this weekend, as the San Francisco 49ers come to town. Theyll remain at home the following week as the Green Bay Packers pay a visit for a game on Monday Night Football. A road game will follow, as the Vikings will head to St. Louis to face the lowly Rams on October 11th.

Ross Everett is a widely published freelance writer and noted authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and World Cup betting sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.

New Orleans Stays Unbeaten With Win Over Miami

With an offense that can strike as quickly as the New Orleans Saints’, they’re never out of a game. The Miami Dolphins found that out the hard way on Sunday as the Saints came roaring back from a 21 point deficit to win going away 46-34. Drew Brees threw for 298 yards and a touchdowns, though gave up three interceptions. Miami dropped to 2-4 on the year.

Adding insult to injury for NFL betting enthusiasts who backed Miami as +6 home underdogs, the Saints continued their rampage against the pointspread with a late game interception return for a touchdown to cover. New Orleans is 6-0 against the number this season, while Miami dropped to 2-4 against the spread. The 80 combined points sailed OVER the posted total of 47′.

After the game, Brees said that his team never lost confidence:

“There was no doubt on our sideline we would come back and win. They had given us their best shot, and we had played about as bad as we could play. All we had to do was string together a few drives and gain the momentum back. We knew it was going to happen, and it did.”

Following a rushing touchdown that gave his team their first lead of the game in the fourth quarter, Brees dunked the football over the goal post crossbar:

“There are times in the game when a team just needs an emotional lift. I felt like I had to do something to get everybody hyped. The first thing that came to mind was to dunk it.”

Saints’ linebacker Scott Shanle suggested that the game could portent good things to come:

“It can be a season-defining win. This was a test we hadn’t faced yet, and we couldn’t be happier with the way we responded.”

A dejected Ricky Williams explained how his team had lost:

“This was our game to win. We fought and we fought. They just fought harder at the end.”

Dolphins’ QB Vonte Davis said the defense was aware that with Brees in the game even a 21 point lead was tenuous at best:

“With Drew Brees, it’s like the score is 0-0. We knew they would come back and that it would be a tough game.”

The Saints will now host the Atlanta Falcons next Monday night. New Orleans is a -9 home favorite with the total set at 53′. They’ll then face two struggling teams, taking on the Carolina Panthers at home the following Sunday and playing against the Rams at St. Louis on November 15. The Dolphins will play on the road against the New York Jets this Sunday, with Miami a +3′ road underdog and the total set at 40′. They’ll play at New England the following Sunday before returning home on November 15 to take on the lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and respected authority on World Cup betting. His writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.

Cincinnati Wins Low Scoring NFL Preseason Battle At New England

When the biggest play of a NFL football game is an extra point, there’s a good chance it was a dull contest. Such was the case on Thursday night in rainy Foxboro, Massachusetts as the Cincinnati Bengals edged the New England Patriots by a 7-6 score. The big play of the game? A point after touchdown by the Bengals backup kicker, none other than wide receiver Chad Ochocinco. The unlikely placekicker’s extra point would prove to be the margin of victory in the low scoring game.

After the game Ochocinco was in rare form talking about his love for European soccer:

“‘Esteban’ Ochocinco is back, the most interesting footballer in the world. Everyone has to remember, I’ve always said that soccer is my No. 1 sport. I think Ronaldinho would be proud of me right now.”

To punctuate his fondness for the sport known as football in the rest of the world, Ochocinco whipped out his iPhone to display a picture of him with former England captain David Beckham before he continued his exposition:

“Soccer’s my first love, Kicking’s easy … like riding a bike. I can kick them from 50, 60 yards, left or right hash mark. … I kicked all through high school.”

Ochocinco was pressed into service as a placekicker when Shane Graham complained of a sore groin in pregame warm-ups. Ochocinco also played a few series at his usual position, catching three passes for 69 yards.

Patriots wide receiver Wes Welker, who was pressed into emergency service as a placekicker while with the Miami Dolphins, wasnt buying Ochocincos talk about kicking being easy:

“It’s not easy. To kick that is something, and he got real good height on it.”

The Patriots could only manage two FGs, while Cincinnati scored their only touchdown on JT OSullivans 24 yard pass to Chris Henry. OSullivan was also amused by Ochocinco’s PAT, but emphasized that his receivers athletic versatility is no joke:

“Nothing surprises me. All joking aside, he still kicked the ball through the uprights and it ended up winning the game. Some people might think its funny, but it’s important.”

The Bengals continue their NFL preseason play on Thursday, hosting the St. Louis Rams. New England will be back in action on Friday night as they travel to Washington, DC for a game against the Redskins.

Ross Everett is a well known freelance writer who covers travel, casino gambling and sports handicapping. He is a consulting handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, fencing and scuba diving. He lives in Southern Nevada with four dogs and a pet coyote.

Football Flashback: Cards Outlast Packers In Wild OT Shootout

The Green Bay Packers entered the NFL playoffs as one of the league’s hottest teams, and mounted a 21 point second half comeback to force overtime against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. Things looked good when Green Bay won the toss, but only moments later their season was over after an Aaron Rodgers fumble that Karlos Dansby returned 17 yards for the game winning score.

Arizona sent much of the NFL football betting public home unhappy as well with their 6 point outright victory. The Cardinals had opened as -2′ home favorites but public sentiment favoring Green Bay had moved the line so significantly that Arizona was a +2′ home underdog by kickoff. With the victory, the Cardinals improved to 5-4 both SU and against the NFL pointspread at home this season. Obviously, the 96 points the two teams put on the board went well OVER the posted total of 48′. In fact, NFL totals players had already cashed their ticket long before the end of the third quarter.

Cardinals’ quarterback Kurt Warner improved his postseason record to 9-3 SU with one of the most impressive performances in league history. Warner finished with 379 yards passing and 5 touchdowns with no interceptions. Amazingly, Warner had more TD passes (5) than incomplete passes (4). After the game, he reflected on his performance:

“We knew how tough it was going to be on our defense with all the weapons they have offensively and how they’ve been playing. It was just one of those games where I felt great. I loved our playing. I felt like I was seeing everything well and it accumulates to 51 points.”

Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers might be remembered more for the game ending fumble than his own impressive performance, but he matched Warner play for play in what will certainly go down as one of the best quarterback duels in NFL playoff history. Rodgers finished with 422 yards and four touchdowns against one interception. Not surprisingly, the entire Packers’ team along with head coach Mike McCarthy took the loss hard:

“It’s clearly one of the toughest losses I’ve been a part of. I’m very proud of our football team and fight. This is a hard game to swallow.”

Quarterback Rodgers was in no mood to reflect on his excellent numbers, but was instead focused on reliving the decisive final play:

“I was trying to unload it. I should have held on to the ball. I was looking at the front side for Driv [Donald Driver]. It looked like he was getting grabbed a bit. Then I was looking for James [Jones] and they were driving in on him as he was running a little in cut, so I kind of pulled the ball back and someone hit my arm.”

Arizona will head to New Orleans to face the Saints at the Superdome next Saturday afternoon. The Cardinals are a +7 road underdog with the total set at 57. The two teams haven’t met since 2007, a game won by the Saints 31-24 on their home field.

Ross Everett is a freelance writer specializing in NFL football betting, auto racing, donkey basketball and model railroading. He is a consulting handicapper for Oddsbay and provides daily free sports picks to a number of Internet and broadcast media outlets. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and a retired racing wombat.

NFL Has No Problem With Cowboys’ Video Screen

The Dallas Cowboys are settling into their new $1.15 billion dollar home stadium, but much of the talk in the NFL preseason has been about the massive video screen hanging directly over the field of play. There’s been a bit of a controversy about the height of the video screen, with Cowboys owner Jerry Jones rebuffing suggestions that the board was hung too low.

On Friday, the NFL Rules Committee sided with Cowboys owner Jones, indicating that the board was of adequate height. It also clarified the procedure for kicks that hit the board during play, and will revisit the issue in the off-season based on what happens during the 2009 campaign.

Jones has maintained that much of the concern is due to the sheer size of the board, which was hung 90 feet off the field of play”5 feet higher than NFL mandated guidelines. Hes also suggested that Tennessee punters were intentionally trying to hit the board, requiring an effort to kick the ball almost straight up.

The NFL has ruled that if a ball hit the display during play, the clock will be reset and down will be replayed. The replay official will have the authority to review plays to determine if the board came into play during the last two minutes of a half, and the coaches will be able to challenge a play involving the video screen at other times during the game by throwing the red flag. This is similar to rules that already exist for live balls that hit skycams or scoreboard components.

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell commented on the situation:

“We will continue to address the particular circumstances in Dallas, giving full consideration to the competitive, safety and fan experience issues involved. The Cowboys have been fully cooperative as we have addressed this subject, and we will continue to work closely with the club on a longer term resolution.”

Cowboys owner Jones then voiced his opinion on the NFLs ruling:

“I don’t see it as ultimately an issue. You can anticipate the ball hitting the board from time to time. There’s no reason why this can’t be something for punters to deal with very similar to the way you’d deal with the wind in your face or with elements; rain, sleet or snow.”

Jones is hesitant to move the screen for, among other reasons, the huge cost of the engineering project”estimates suggest that it could cost as much as $40 million dollars to raise the screen. Former Cowboys coach Jimmie Johnson also weighed in on the video board issue:

“If there’s anything wrong, it’s that people are going to watch the video board and not the game. It is so dominating, but I think it’s so cool. I think it’s great.”

The Cowboys play their final preseason game at the new stadium this Saturday as they host the San Francisco 49ers. Dallas will make their regular season debut at the venue on Sunday, September 20th as the New York Giants provide the opposition.

Ross Everett is a experienced freelance writer who covers travel, casino gambling and sports handicapping. He is a consulting handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, fencing and scuba diving. He lives in Southern Nevada with four dogs and a pet coyote.

Colts Rip Eagles In NFL Preseason Action

The Indianapolis Colts offense was in high gear as Peyton Manning threw two TD passes in three series of action, leaving backup Curtis Painter with a 14-0 lead over the Philadelphia Eagles before exiting the game. The Colts would eventually depend as much on their defense as their offense over the course of the subsequent NFL season but on this day the Colts went on to win 23-15 in NFL preseason action at the Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Manning hadn’t been happy with the offense’s lethargic opening game performance, and was in much better spirits after this game:

“I think everybody wanted to be in there. The entire offense felt hungry after last week. Sure, there were some mistakes we can learn from, but there were some good things we can learn from.”

“I don’t think anybody offensively was really happy with what happened last week. It started with me and the entire offensive starting unit. Overall I thought everybody came back and did a better job tonight.”

Colts head coach Jim Caldwell was also happy with the performance:

“They [the starters] had a couple of real good solid drives in there, performing pretty well. We were pleased with what we saw.”

Eagles coach Andy Reid, meanwhile, wasnt the least bit enthused with what he saw from his team:

“All in all, that was an embarrassing performance and way too many penalties, not enough intensity all the way around, starting with me. It was a poor performance.”

The Eagles were missing a number of starters and aside from a nice touchdown pass from Donovan McNabb early in the game looked nothing like a team expected to contend for a Superbowl berth. The Eagles would go on to choke mightily in the playoffs, an obvious karmic payback for signing unrepentant dog abuser Michael Vick. Vick was ineffectual all year, which made the hubris of bringing him into the fold even less understandable.

Philadelphia will host the Jacksonville Jaguars next Thursday night looking for their first win of the NFL preseason. The Colts will continue their NFL exhibition slate as they travel to Detroit for a game against the Lions a week from Saturday.

Ross Everett is a respected freelance writer specializing in travel, poker and sports handicapping. He is a staff handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is responsible for providing daily free sports picks. In his spare time he enjoys fine dining, fencing and scuba diving. He lives in Southern Nevada with four dogs and a pet coyote.

San Francisco Nips Denver In NFL Preseason Action

New Denver starting QB Kyle Orton, who was acquired from Chicago in the off-season, threw interceptions on each of his first three offensive series. San Francisco’s offense didn’t exactly light up the scoreboard, but it did do enough to eke out a 17-16 NFL preseason victory before their home fans.

The good news for Orton is that despite his three interceptions Broncos coach Josh McDaniels remained steadfast in his support. Orton appeared thankful of this fact in his postgame comments:

“That’s great. That’s certainly what you need in this league is the support of your coach. I’m not worried about it. I’ve got a lot of confidence in myself. I think my team has a lot of confidence in me. … I don’t want to make those decisions and throw three interceptions.”

Orton was acquired after McDaniels relationship with NFL pro bowler Jay Cutler soured due to his effort”and subsequent denial”that he was trying to move the quarterback. Its been a rough start to Ortons tenure in Denver”he was even booed during a public scrimmage after throwing an interception.

McDaniels put Orton’s struggles and the loss into perspective:

“I feel very confident in where we’re at. There’s no reason to start tailspinning into this and that when we’ve only had one preseason game.”

Niners’ cornerback Nate Clemens in particular was a huge factor, hauling in one of Ortons three miscues. After the game he commented on the play:

“I saw the route and played my responsibility and he threw it. I like seeing all of our defensive backs get interceptions and just making plays because we’re game breakers.”

The Niners have yet to name a starting quarterback and both Shaun Hill and Alex Smith played solid, if unspectacular, football. Hill spoke of his first preseason action:

“We were able to move the ball and we had a big conversion on third down. That last sack kind of hurt us. That was completely on me. The offensive line did a great job out there. So I’d like to have that play back and I feel like we could have gotten seven out of that.”

Smith was just glad to be back on the field after missing the entire 2008 season due to injury:

“Obviously, I was raring to go when I got out there. It’s been a long time for me, so I was pretty amped up.”

Denver will head to the Pacific Northwest for a game against the Seattle Seahawks next Saturday night. San Francisco, meanwhile, will host their local rivals the Oakland Raiders. The Broncos open the NFL regular season on Sunday, September 13th against the Bengals at Cincinnati. San Francisco will get the regular season underway on the same day as they head to Tempe, Arizona to face the Arizona Cardinals.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and respected authority on World Cup betting. His writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.

Chiefs End NFL Preseason Winless After Loss To Rams

The Kansas City Chiefs have had an awful preseason, primarily due to their inability to put points on the board. This liability cost offensive coordinator Chan Gailey his job earlier in the week, but in the first game with head coach Todd Haley calling the plays it was more of the same as the Chiefs couldn’t find the end zone. St. Louis scored an offensive touchdown late in the first half and used a third quarter interception return for a score to beat Kansas City 17-9. The Chiefs finished the NFL preseason with a winless 0-4 record, while St. Louis posted a 3-1 mark.

NFL preseason betting aficionados who took a flyer on the Rams were rewarded by their outright victory in the pickem game. Kansas City also finished 0-4 against the spread, while St. Louis finished 3-1 to the number. The combined 26 points put on the board went well UNDER the posted total of 36. The Chiefs went UNDER in all four preseason games, while the Rams split their O/U tally at 2-2.

The only offense that the Chiefs were able to generate came off the foot of placekicker Ryan Succop who converted three field goals. Despite his teams continued offensive struggles, Haley tried to put a positive spin on the situation:

“I made a few mistakes out there but overall it felt good. Obviously, there were a couple of plays I would like to have back. After I got the feel a little bit, I didn’t feel too out of sync with the game and what was going on. I thought our defense gave us a chance to win. Running the football is something we can feel good about.”

The Chiefs moved the ball well, generating 406 yards of total offense but had trouble converting in the red zone. They also turned the ball over three times, the most costly a third quarter interception thrown by reserve QB Tyler Thigpen. The Rams Quincy Butler took the interception to the house for a 28 yard touchdown return. Afterwards, he suggested that his team has a new mindset:

“Every time the ball’s in the air, we all think ‘It’s my ball. We all go and get it.”

The Rams have 12 takeaways in the 2009 preseason under new head coach Steve Spagnuolo. Spagnuolo was generally pleased with his teams effort in the victory:

“It was good to get those guys back in the swing. Now we’ve just got to get Marc (Bulger) cranked up.”

Spagnuolo wasnt too concerned about all of the yardage his team gave up:

“The silver lining is the defense held them and got them to kick a field goal. So there’s some good and bad always.”

St. Louis will head to the Pacific Northwest next Sunday as they open their regular season against the Seattle Seahawks. The Chiefs will also open the NFL 2009 campaign on the road, heading to Baltimore to take on the Ravens.

Ross Everett is a widely published freelance sports writer and respected authority on World Cup betting. His writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and sportsbook directory sites. He lives in Southern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.

Ravens Use Big Fourth Quarter To Put Away Chiefs

The bad news for the Baltimore Ravens in their 2009 NFL regular season opener was that their vaunted defense gave up 24 points despite holding a decided advantage in every other statistical category. The good news was that their offense was more than up to the task, answering with 38 points and a franchise record 501 yards. All told, the Ravens opened their season on a winning note beating the Kansas City Chiefs 38-24.

NFL sports betting devotees who took the +13 points with the Chiefs as a road underdog were hard luck losers as the Ravens managed to cover the pointspread by a single point. The win evened Baltimore’s ATS record over the past three seasons at 18-18, while the Chiefs fell to 14-19 in the same timeframe. The 62 combined points scored easily exceeded the posted total of 37. Despite Baltimore’s reputation as a defensive powerhouse they’ve shown a decided bias to the OVER in recent years, with 22 OVER verdicts in their last 35 games.

Afterwards, Joe Flacco was clearly elated at his solid passing performance:

“It’s awesome. It’s so much fun. As a quarterback, that’s what you want to do.”

Ravens coach John Harbaugh expressed confidence in his team’s ability to make plays:

“We’re going to throw more if it helps us win games. I think that we will be capable of throwing the ball more ways than we did last year. We have really good players that can make plays.”

Chiefs backup quarterback Brodie Croyle played relatively well in a losing cause. Filling in for the injured Matt Cassel, Croyle put up 177 yards on 16 of 24 passing and 2 touchdowns with no interceptions. Despite the solid performance, Croyle was in no mood to talk about his personal accomplishments in the wake of the loss:

“Play well, don’t play well — if you don’t win, you still have the same feeling and that’s where I’m at.”

In his post game comments, first year Chiefs coach Todd Haley gave props to his quarterback :

“I thought Brodie Croyle gave us a chance to win today and that’s all I’ll ever ask my quarterback to do. I got to give credit to Baltimore. They were a throwing machine today. They threw the ball probably a lot more than we anticipated.”

The Ravens now head cross country to take on the San Diego Chargers in southern California next Sunday. After that theyll return home the following week to take on the Cleveland Browns. Kansas City will host the Oakland Raiders next Sunday before heading to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles the following week.

Ross Everett is a widely published freelance sports writer and respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and World Cup betting sites. He lives in Northern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.

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